Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (600031): Interim report predicts double-expected growth

Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (600031): Interim report predicts double-expected growth

Event: The company announced today that the net profit attributable to mothers in the first half of the year was 6.5 billion to 70 billion, an increase of 92% to 107% year-on-year, which is believed to be as follows: 1. Construction machinery maintained a high degree of prosperity, and the market share of leading companies ‘products continued to increase.

Benefiting from the promotion of infrastructure, equipment updates, manual replacement and other factors, the industry continues to maintain a rapid growth trend. At the same time, the company has adopted a more proactive market strategy. The market share of excavators, concrete machinery, lifting machinery and other products has continued to increase.Half year company excavator sales 3.

40,000 units, an annual increase of 30%, the market share increased by 2pct; January-April, the company’s truck crane sales of 4,380 units, an annual increase of 118%, the market share increased by 3pct; the concrete pump truck continued to benefit from the volume of the two bridge small pump trucks,The market share has further improved.

  2. The post-cycle products continued to push,武汉夜生活网 driving the company’s performance beyond expectations.

Under the circumstance that the sales volume of the excavator decreased in the second quarter from the first quarter, the company’s net profit center continued to increase. We believe that this is mainly due to the continued development of the post-cycle market such as cranes and concrete machinery, and the increase in the company’s related product volume.Significant improvement in profitability has further driven the company’s overall performance beyond expectations.

  3. Medium-term: The company’s performance is gradually weakening.

First, the difference between equipment ownership and GDP demand scissors + manpower replacement has supported the industry’s sales center. Second, compared with the previous round of excessive credit sales in the industry, the demand infiltration support is relatively real. From the micro-indicator perspective,Normally, the probability of a cliff-like decline is small; finally, the economy is weakening, and increased investment in infrastructure will support the potential of this round of construction machinery recovery.

  4. Long-term: Look at the international development of the company.

We believe that the company’s internationalization is expected to accelerate. First, the localization of core parts represented by hydraulic parts and engines is gradually breaking through. The cost of domestic construction machinery still has room to fall, and the international competitiveness of products can continue to improve. Second, the experienceWith decades of development, the company has accumulated rich experience in serving customers, brands and channels. At the same time, this round has restored further consolidated company finances, thereby accelerating the foundation for entering the international market.

  Performance and Estimates: Based on the industry’s high business climate, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to 11 billion / 12.5 billion / 13.5 billion in 2019-2021, PE is 10 times / 9 times / 8 times, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

  Risk Warning: Macroeconomic Prosperity Declines Highly, Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Is Less Than Expected

Huayou Cobalt (603799): The industry plans to issue shares to acquire Tianjin Bamo and Huayou Yinzhou, some of the equity of lithium power upstart

Huayou Cobalt (603799): The industry plans to issue shares to acquire Tianjin Bamo and Huayou Yinzhou, some of the equity of lithium power upstart

The company plans to purchase shares in Tianjin Bamo and Huayou Luzhou by issuing shares.

On April 8, the company announced that it intends to purchase the shares of Tianjin Bamo and Huayou Luzhou by issuing shares, and the counterparty is the entire equity of Bamo Technology held by Hangzhou Hongyuan and all the related equity and Xinneng Fund.Huzhou Youzhou Luzhou 15.

68% of the entire equity related to the shares, and the suspension 深圳桑拿网 of trading since the opening of the market on April 9, 2019, the company’s suspension of trading for no more than 10 trading days.

Tianjin Bamo is a national leader in lithium cobaltate block copolymer materials and one of the important customers of Huayou Cobalt.

As of 2017, Bamo Technology has achieved an annual production capacity of 25,000 tons, with a budget of US $ 4.7 billion in 2017, and Chengdu Bamo plans to invest a total of US $ 3 billion in planning to replace 10 years of long-term capacity for materials of scale.

In 2018, Bamo Technology’s lithium cobaltate content was 8,800 tons, ranking third in the country (16.

16%), and the NCM injection volume also reached 6,700 tons, accounting for 4%.

9% are leaders in the primary materials industry.

The company mainly sells tricobalt tetroxide and other products to Bamo, which reached 13 to Bamo in 2018.

05 ppm, accounting for 13 of Huayou’s cobalt product revenue.

63%.

On June 27, 2017, Tongxiang Huayou Investment, the company’s second largest shareholder, had signed a share purchase agreement with related parties and planned to acquire Bamo Technology42.

With a 02% stake, Bamo is a subsidiary of the affiliate of the second largest shareholder.

It is expected that after the acquisition, the synergy between the company and Bamo products will be greatly strengthened again.

The proposed acquisition of new energy funds holds Huayou Luzhou15.

68% equity, once again realized wholly-owned holding.

Huayou Yinzhou is the company’s important lithium battery new energy material, cobalt and copper smelting enterprise.

In 2017, the realized revenue and net profit were 59.

900 million and 8.

7.8 billion, accounting for 62.

1% and 50.

1%, is the company’s main smelting base.

In October 2018, the acquisition of the credit assets of Huayou Luzhou by Xinneng Fund and the simultaneous conversion of debt to equity led to capital increase7.

300 million, thus obtaining Huayou Luzhou 15.

The 68% equity interest also effectively reduced Huayou Yinzhou’s asset-liability ratio.

We expect that if the company acquires all the equity of the new energy fund holders this time, it will once again wholly-owned the important subsidiary Huayou Luzhou.

Profit forecast and grade: As the PE527 and MIKAS technical transformation projects gradually reach full production, their own cobalt ore volume has significantly increased, and the proportion of self-supplying cobalt ore mines may continue to increase.

At present, MB cobalt has begun to rebound. It is expected that the cobalt price will bottom out and the company will gradually move from a leader in cobalt to a leader in lithium battery new energy.

Maintain the company’s profit for 2019-2021, and expect to achieve net profit attributable to the mother, respectively8.

300 million, 13.

200 million, 16.

1 ppm, EPS is 1.

0 yuan, 1.

6 yuan, 1.

9 yuan, calculated on April 8th price, PE is 42.

3X, 26.

6X, 21.

9X.Maintain the level of “prudent overweight”.

Risk reminder: the supply side is too fast, the price of cobalt has dropped sharply, and its own project is less than expected risk

China Engineering International (002051): Increase in overseas revenue weighs on first half performance

China Engineering International (002051): Increase in overseas revenue weighs on first half performance

The first half performance is lower than we expected the company’s first half of 2019 results: revenue 55.

0 ‰, a decrease of 7 per year.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

0 million yuan, a decrease of 21 a year.

4%; of which the second quarter realized revenue of 32.

400 million, a decrease of 16 per year.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

800 million, a decrease of 33 a year.

9%, due to the forced lag of overseas projects, performance exceeded our expectations.

1H19 company income temporarily decreased 7.

7%, of which 西安耍耍网 territorial income has increased by 20 in ten years.

0% while overseas income decreased by 19 in ten years.

5%, we think it is mainly due to the maximum performance of overseas projects in the past three years;

6ppt, mainly due to the lower gross profit margin of project contracting.

9ppt; sales / management / R & D expense ratios increased by 0 respectively.

6/0.

2/0.

4ppt, while the financial expense ratio is significantly reduced by 2 every year.

0ppt, mainly due to the exchange rate gains caused by the depreciation of the RMB; bad debt losses increased by 91.16 million yuan from an increase of 66.75 million yuan, which became the main factor affecting the net profit in the first half of the year. The company achieved a net profit rate of 9 in 1H19.

1%, ten-year average 1.

6ppt.

In the first half of the 武汉夜生活网 year, the company’s net operating cash alternatives.

80,000 yuan (net inflow of 6 in the same period last year.

USD 800 million), mainly due to the company’s participation in a number of projects in the expenditure period, payment of additional engineering funds and replacement payments.

Development Trends Overseas new long-term single-term strong growth, but new performance continues to weaken.

1H19 company overseas new long-term single 12.

2 billion US dollars, an increase of 110 in ten years.

7%, achieving strong growth at a low base; new mandatory contracts overseas6.

2 billion US dollars, an increase of 13 in ten years.

4%, there is some improvement but the speed of efficacy is still slow.

We believe that as the company’s overseas engineering business is in a transition period and the international political and economic forms are changing, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the new signing of the project and the progress achieved.

China Zhongyuan is expected to play a synergistic effect with the company’s advantages.

In the first half of the year, China Yuan realized revenue and net profit.

600 million, 5,455.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 19 each year.

0%, 11.

1%.

China Zhongyuan has comprehensive qualifications (with engineering design qualifications), strong technical strength (participated in the preparation of a large number of national standards), rich engineering experience (he has participated in large-scale projects at home and abroad many times), in medical construction, ropeway and other fieldsThe competitive advantage is significant, and it is expected to play a synergistic effect with corporate financing and business advantages in the future, but its progress still needs to be observed. Earnings forecasts and estimates As the performance of overseas projects has exceeded our expectations, we have lowered our 2019 net profit forecast by 51% to 9.

700 million, Net profit forecast for 20209.

700 million.

The current priority corresponds to 13.

4/13.

4x 2019 / 2020e P / E.

We maintain our Outperform rating. We lower our target price by 35% to 13 due to lowered profit forecasts.

0 yuan, corresponding to 16.

5x 2019 e P / E, 23% upside compared to current price.

Risks International political and economic prospects face uncertainty.

WuXi AppTec (603259) in-depth research: helping to realize the dream of innovation, the company fosters long-term growth

WuXi AppTec (603259) in-depth research: helping to realize the dream of innovation, the company fosters long-term growth
[Key points of investment]In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 96.1.3 billion, +23 a year.8%, with a CAGR of 25 in 2015-2018.36%; net profit attributable to mother 22.610,000 yuan, +84 for ten years.27%, with a CAGR of 86 in 2015-2018.43%.The company’s maximum operating expenses are strictly controlled, and its operating efficiency is gradually improved. With the booming domestic CRO and CMO / CDMO markets, the proportion of internal revenue has increased, from 17% in 2015 to 25% in 2018. Benefiting from the high degree of prosperity of the industry in which the tide of innovation is located, the company has the first-mover advantage and has outstanding long-term growth in important areas of emerging balance of power.CRO: The CAGR of China’s CRO market is expected to reach about 20 in 2017-2021.09%.In 2016, the company’s global market share reached 2.02%, ranked 11th, and has a rapid growth rate (predicted in 2018 is 2).7%).In 2018, WuXi AppTec’s CRO business revenue ranked first in the country, accounting for 杭州桑拿 about 10% of the market share; CMO / CDMO: The CAGR of the CMO / CDMO market is expected to reach about 18 in 2017-2021.3%.WuXi PharmaTech’s CMO / CDMO business is mainly carried out through its holding subsidiary Hequan Pharmaceutical, which can provide integrated business services to international and domestic customers.In 2018, the company’s CMO / CDMO business revenue ranked first in China, accounting for about 7% of the market share.In 2017, the company accounted for approximately 8 in the global and US cell and gene therapy CMO / CDMO markets.1% and 18.2%, ranked fourth and second respectively.The global CDMO / CMO market for cell and gene therapy products is expected to achieve an average annual rate of 24 in the next few years.High-speed growth of about 5%. The company is a “dream maker” with innovative capabilities and can help innovative pharmaceutical companies accelerate their dreams. Through cross-selling of “integrated, end-to-end” R & D service platform, the company promotes more services to existing customers.The company has provided integrated new drug discovery and development services to domestic customers since early 2015. In 2018, it assisted customers to complete the IND application for 27 small molecule innovative drugs and obtained clinical trial approvals (CTA) for 17 projects.By the end of 2018, the IND application for 55 projects had been completed and the CTA for 34 projects had been obtained. In 2018, the company’s CDMO / CMO service project involved more than 650 new drug molecules, of which 40 were in clinical phase III, and 16 were approved for marketing.By the end of 2018, the company provided CDMO services for 30 clinical-stage cell and gene therapy projects. In terms of serving domestic customers, in 2018, the company helped Gree Pharma’s new hepatitis C drug, Ganovo, and Hutchison Whampoa’s new colorectal cancer drug, Ayoto, were successfully approved in China, becoming a trusted manufacturer of innovative drugs in China. [Investment suggestion]The company is a “dream maker” with innovative ability and can help innovative pharmaceutical companies accelerate the realization of their dreams.Benefiting from the high degree of prosperity of the industry in which the tide of innovation is located, the company has the first-mover advantage and has undergone major changes internally, with outstanding long-term growth, and can be given an estimated premium.Actual growth of the combined company We revised the growth rate of the US CRO, clinical research and other CRO sectors, and lowered the company’s 19/20/21 annual revenue to 120.85/148.06/181.1.9 billion yuan (previous report 19/20 is expected to be 123.14/152.63ppm), the net profit attributable to mothers is 20 respectively.57/25.21/30.8.4 billion yuan (previous report was estimated to be 23 in 19/20).28/28.8.9 billion), EPS is 1.76/2.15/2.64 yuan, corresponding to PE is 53/44/36 times. We take 7.A 33% WACC and a 3% perpetual expansion were DCF estimated, and the DCF estimate was 111.68 yuan.According to the company’s historical PE, we give 53 times PE in the relative estimation method, with a target price of 94 in 2019.14 yuan.In the environment of high market prosperity, we suggest that you can refer to the DCF estimation results.The six-month target price is 111.68 yuan, given a “buy” rating. [Risk reminder]Uncertainty in fair value gains; the actual growth rate of the industry does not meet expectations; the progress of investment projects does not meet expectations; exchange rate changes;

Longji (601012): Profitability continues to improve and cash flow improves

Longji (601012): Profitability continues to improve and cash flow improves
The company released the third quarter report for 2019, and the first three quarters achieved revenue of 226.930,000 yuan, an increase of 54 in ten years.68%, net profit attributable to mother 34.840,000 yuan, an increase of 106 in ten years.03%.The third quarter achieved revenue of 85.820,000 yuan, 南京夜网论坛 an increase of 83 in ten years.80%, an increase of 2 from the previous month.15%, net profit attributable to mother 14.750,000 yuan, an increase of 283 in ten years.85%, an increase of 5 from the previous month.46%. Weak demand affects the increase, and costs and expenses continue to decline: affected by the late release of domestic bidding indicators, domestic photovoltaic installations in the third quarter.4GW, affecting the company’s domestic sales of modules, module sales fell sequentially.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in the third quarter was 29.93%, an increase of 8.61 units, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.89 average values, which have continued to increase since the fourth quarter of 2018. The price of wafers and component execution prices have stabilized in the third quarter. The increase in gross profit margin indicates that costs have continued to decline.The company’s expense ratio in the first three quarters was 8.21%, down by 1 every year.18 units, expense ratio 7 in the third quarter.48%, a decline of 2 per year.88 units. High overseas sales growth and continuous improvement in cash flow: The company’s overseas market business layout and channel construction have significantly improved. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of overseas monocrystalline modules reached 2423MW, an increase of 252%. The overseas sales of modules accounted for 76%. Overseas sales in the third quarterThe high proportion continued.The company strengthened production and operation management and cash control, and cash flow continued to improve, achieving 40 in the first three quarters.Net operating cash inflow of US $ 1.4 billion, 15 in the third quarter.8.7 billion net inflows.Accounts receivable at the end of the third quarter38.500,000 yuan, a decrease of 9 from the previous month.3.9 billion. Rapid expansion of production capacity, demand is expected to rise: given the full advantages of cost and technology, the company’s production capacity accelerated.Wafer production capacity is expected to reach 65GW in 2020, one year earlier than originally planned.The cell capacity in 2019-2021 is expected to reach 10GW, 15GW and 20GW; the module capacity is expected to reach 16GW, 25GW and 30GW in 2019-2021.Yunnan Phase II silicon rod wafer project has been put into production and climbing.With the gradual opening of domestic bidding projects and the expectation of stable growth in overseas demand next year, it is expected that global installed demand will gradually rise. Profit forecast: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.30, 1.67 and 2.10 yuan, maintain BUY rating. Risk reminder: Product prices fall more than expected; overseas market development is less than expected

GF Securities Shen Minggao: Proposal to relax fiscal deficit ceiling to 6%

GF Securities Shen Minggao: Proposal to relax fiscal deficit ceiling to 6%

Shen Minggao, chief economist of GF Securities: Proposed a large-scale relaxation of the fiscal deficit ceiling of 6%. Xu Tianxiao: Today we are also very honored to welcome Dr. Shen Minggao, chief economist of GF Securities, to bring you a speech that brings development.

  Shen Minggao: Thank you Securities Daily for your invitation to participate in today’s event. This section is about directional development. The focus is not on discussing economic growth next year. From the perspective of the economic trend next year, it will face greater pressure in the first half of next year.As long as the economy is likely to stabilize at a low level in the second half of next year, the stock market next year will have more certainty than this year.

There will be four relative certainties in the market next year. The first certainty is that China-US trade negotiations may achieve phased results by the end of February. This phased results will help to avoid the deterioration of Sino-US trade frictions, even in the short term.There is a reduction in it. I don’t think the Sino-US trade friction will end, but it will not worsen in the short term.

  Secondly, the Fed may raise interest rates next year. We expect the Fed to raise interest rates twice more next year. The market has begun to adjust. The market expects to raise interest rates two to four times in two months, and now it can only do so once or twice.

Therefore, the Fed will end the rate hike cycle next year, and the dollar may weaken from deep. Usually when the dollar weakens, emerging markets may benefit.

  Third, the Sino-US economy is staggered. For the fourth time since 1997, staggered peaks have occurred. Whenever staggered peaks occur, the Chinese economy will be better than the United States, and the Chinese economy will be at a low level.Stabilizing, and the decline of the US economy from a high level, has brought stock market dividends of erratic peaks between China and the United States.

  Fourth, how aggressive and prioritized fiscal policies are next year actually determines the impact on China’s economic transformation and market. If fiscal priorities are next year, supplemented by monetary policy, I think it is good for the stock market. If monetary policy, fiscal policy isSupplementary, may be a positive bond market.

  Today ‘s discussion is a challenge and opportunity that will be faced from the perspective of previous development. First, the Chinese economy, the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, made it very clear that the transition from high-speed growth to expected development means that the traditional economic growth momentum is weakening.

The horizontal axis is GDP per capita, and China is close to 1 in terms of purchasing power parity.

According to the nominal exchange rate, this year is more than 9,000 US dollars. Red is China, blue is Japan, and gray is South Korea. Basically, the per capita GDP pressure has reached 1.

At 40,000 USD, the growth rate of Japan and South Korea ‘s GDP dropped from about 10% to 4-7%. If the Chinese economy really enters the transformation and development in the future, it is likely that our GDP growth rate will continue to increase.Slow, between 4-7 percent, I think is an acceptable growth rate.

If the quality of growth improves at the same time, this is good news for the market.

  We are now communicating with many investors. Investors don’t care much about the growth rate of GDP. The importance of GDP growth rate is to affect the profitability of the company. If the profitability of the company can be improved, the economic growth rate is slower, which is not a problem in itself.
Therefore, from the perspective of the expected development process, first of all, it means that the growth rate has slowed down. From the high-speed growth to the expected development, we have seen a transition period. My personal opinion of this transition period is not completed in one year.Now, there is an illusion, it seems that it has already entered a period of expected development. I don’t think so. It is now in a period of high-speed growth and gradual development. This transition period may take three years or five years.This year determines the direction of our policy.

  Under the current circumstances, we can see the growth momentum of the past. The growth momentum during the period of rapid growth is mainly two categories, one is investment and the other is export.

One is the growth rate of real estate, and the other is the growth rate of manufacturing capacity investment. All the way down, the shorter one is infrastructure. This year, the growth rate is also very fast. This year, infrastructure may rebound, and the rebound of infrastructure is really significant.In addition to the preliminary buffer effect, in addition to the real estate industry has greatly eased.

  How to relax the real estate policy next year, cancel the purchase restrictions and price limits, I think these should have been cancelled long ago, and should not be limited.

The key is how much the loan restriction policy can be relaxed next year. The blue line is the rate of medium and long-term supplementary loans for residents. The red line is the alternating change of 70 second-hand housing prices. The blue line is 6-12 ahead of the red line.Months.

How much the house price rises next year has a lot to do with policy relaxation, but it is particularly highly related to the credit policy. If there is a big credit discharge next year, of course, house prices will certainly skyrocket, but I think the aftermath is very obvious and the risk of the real estate bubble bursting is intensified.
If credit is controlled next year, house prices will rise, which is relatively limited, and regional relaxation will be more obvious.

  The stimulus policies that worked well during the period of rapid growth have actually gotten worse and worse, especially the marginal effects. You try a stimulus plan and infrastructure again. These past traditionalThe stimulus policy, I think the marginal effect is declining.

The best way is to try to avoid these traditional stimulus policies, but tolerate economic growth alternatives appropriately.

Capacity investment is facing overcapacity, infrastructure investment is facing pressure from high leverage of local governments, and export growth is also facing the impact of Sino-US trade frictions.

  Speaking of exports, the chart on the left is to calculate the growth of China ‘s exports to the United States. There are three lines. The lower blue is the first batch of 25% tariffs on the United States. This year, it is a negative growth of 29%.

The above line is the second batch of goods with a tariff of 200 billion U.S. dollars, which was levied a 10% tariff. It increased by 23% in September. Everyone is rushing to export. No tariff is levied. By September, the increase was about 9%.

If the Sino-US trade friction continues to worsen, it is clear that China’s exports next year will face greater downward pressure.

My prediction is that there will be a gradual relaxation next year, which will be beneficial to exports.

The growth rate of the traditional kinetic energy that China’s economy faces has slowed down initially.

  There is also a more important routine, the US GDP structure, industry, agriculture, and service industries. Since 1840, the United States as a large country has certain comparability with China. In 1840, the United States economy experienced three transformations. The first was industrialization.From agriculture to industry, the second is that the industrial share has not risen, but the industrial growth has been upgraded from the low end to the middle and high end, and the third is the society from industry to service.

  In the early 1980s, Japan ‘s manufacturing costs accounted for 45% of staff costs. In the early 1980s, Japan ‘s low-end manufacturing industry began to shift to China. In 2016, we also found that labor costs accounted for 45% of China ‘s manufacturing costs.%, So from this graph, we can tell us that from a national level, China’s low-end manufacturing scale advantage is gradually being lost, and China’s low-end manufacturing has started to shift overseas.

  Let ‘s look at the graph on the right. The dark blue line is our calculation of the proportion of China ‘s labor-intensive exports to G20. In the early 1990s, labor-intensive exports accounted for only 10% of G20. From 2013 to 35%, 2016The year began to decline, and China began to shift to other countries.

China’s transition from high-speed growth to expected development occurred at the threshold of low-end manufacturing transfer.

Then, in superimposing trade frictions, we need some similar policies at such junctures to serve alternative development. This is the second point I want to make.

  Generally speaking, the transition from high-speed growth to the expected development may require a transformation period of restructuring. In this transition period, I personally think that the most important policy is fiscal policy, which should be prioritized by fiscal policy and supplemented by monetary policy.

This is a policy-policy map. Structured policies go up to reform, and step-down policies go down to monetary policy.

The implementation of the policy is difficult. The policy on the left is very difficult. It requires strong men to break their wrists. The policy to the right is relatively easy to implement. It can be solved by issuing a document.

  In such a space, you can see that there are actually two main types of policies, upper left and lower right, including lowering and reducing interest rates, relaxing real estate investment, and promoting infrastructure investment. These are the old methods of the past.It ‘s easy to cut interest rates. It ‘s easy to send a notice, but the policy at the bottom left is easy, but if it has a negative effect, it is likely to continue to increase leverage. It is likely that the asset bubble is higher, so we hope that the policy at the bottom right is less.use.

The top left is reform-oriented. I think the government is downsizing. It is the most difficult for the government to cut staff. This may be something to do in the future.We have found a policy that is expected to be a tax cut, which is part of fiscal policy.

My personal suggestion is that if from now to the next three to five years, China’s transition from rapid growth to transformation and development, fiscal policy should be given higher priority.

  Monetary policy can be used to support the promotion of fiscal policy. The key point for everyone now is the government’s tax reduction. How strong is the tax reduction?

What is our market expectation?

In my personal judgment, the market expects that the scale of tax cuts next year will be about one trillion yuan, and some people say that the future five trillion yuan will be a trillion yuan a year.

From the entire high-speed growth to the expected development, I think one trillion is not enough. It is necessary to exceed market expectations to change market behavior. If the next five years or three to five years, the scale of annual tax reduction fees can exceed two.Trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, may make us better from high-speed growth to alternative development, and the opportunity for the stock market is even greater.

  Where does the space for government tax cuts come from?

This is a very important issue. There are three channels. The first channel is to increase the fiscal deficit rate, which is 2 this year.

5%, to 2 next year.

5, that’s 2.

With the increase of five exceptions, the government has a principle that it cannot exceed 3%, and it is understandable that it does not exceed 3% during normal times.

Our transition from high-speed growth to 重庆耍耍网 the expected transformation is a special thing, so I think we should expand the upper limit of the fiscal deficit. 6% is acceptable.

However, in the short term, it is more difficult for us to judge. It is possible that the fiscal deficit rate announced by the two sessions will still be 3%, and there is limited space for raising the fiscal deficit rate alone.

  The second channel is to reduce expenditures and income. The proportion of fiscal expenditure to GDP and the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP is very obvious. The V shape in the 1980s is about 22% of GDP.It fell to about 11% in 1994, a halving.

After 1994, all the way up, up to nearly 26%. In the process, GDP has increased many times, and the proportion of fiscal expenditure has increased. Therefore, our expenditure is indeed a heavy burden.No reduction.

Can 南京夜生活网 the government slim down or take other paths? I think there should be room, but there is no mention of the agenda now.

  The third is state-owned assets. According to the annual census of state-owned assets, the total size of China’s state-owned assets in 2017 was 454 trillion yuan. I think there is a lot of room for tax reduction.

Before the gradual development in the future, during this transition period, fiscal policy will be more active and help us achieve this smooth transition. I think this is the most important market expectation.

This process will not meet the market’s expectations all at once, this is a gradual process and takes time.

  Finally, from the financial point of view, we see some changes in the end. There are three points worthy of attention. The first point is that in such a transformation period, we are particularly eager to see the certainty of long-term policies, and thus the uncertainty of this transformation.Among them, our future direction should be more certain, giving the market and giving investors direction.

Secondly, in the future, the proportion of direct financing will increase. I believe that in the past, when investment and exports increased, indirect financing can meet our development needs. However, in the future, consumption and innovation will be the main focus.Pricing has become more important, so I think the opportunity for direct financing should be greater. In other words, banks will face different pressures. Large banks and small banks will experience greater differentiation. This is the firsttwo points.
  Thirdly, I think that in the future expected development period, the role of long-term funds will become larger and larger. There are several reasons for this, which have caused our per capita income to the current level, and there is a need for some long-term investment.

In another part, the expected development is a slow economy. This slow economy requires more long-term funding. This long-term funding includes pensions and insurance, as well as the people’s own needs for long-term investment in asset allocation, such as education and future funds.demand.

  In general, from a financial perspective, how to better serve the expected development, we look forward to more fiscal power in the short term.

From the perspective of the next three to five years, we see three aspects. First, the expectations of the policy are becoming more and more obvious, and the possibility of the market is becoming more and more clear. The second and third aspects are the above.

  Thank you!

  Xu Tianxiao: Thank you Dr. Shen.

The next guest who appeared in the industry is not large, but it is an out-of-the-box star enterprise. We talk about how the real economy can empower transformation and development, and even all sectors of society have paid much attention to SMEs and private enterprisesAnd sound.

Yangnong Chemical (600486) Comment Report: The performance is not up to expectations, optimistic about the company’s long-term development

Yangnong Chemical (600486) Comment Report: The performance is not up to expectations, optimistic about the company’s long-term development

Event: On the evening of April 1, 2019, the company released its 2018 annual report, and Yangnong Chemical achieved operating income of 52 in 2018.

910,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.

21%; realized net profit attributable to mother 8.

95 ppm, an increase of 55 in ten years.

73%; basic profit return is 2.

89 yuan, an annual increase of 55.

73%.

Among them, 2018Q4 achieved revenue 9.

4.6 billion, down 24.

3%; net profit attributable to mother is 1.

99.4 billion, 50% molecular weight.

95%.

Key points of investment: The decline in product sales has dragged down the company’s Q4 performance: the company’s main business is pesticides and herbicides, which mainly include pyrethroid, glyphosate, dicamba, etc.

From the price point of view, the average price of kefirone and bifenthrin was 37 in Q4 2018.

3, 42.

20,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 15% from the previous quarter of 2018Q3, 5.

2%; herbicide glyphosate, dicamba, Q4 quarter average price was 2.

8,9.

60,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 1 from Q3.

3%, 0%.

It can be seen that the product price was relatively stable in the Q4 quarter, and some products increased, but Q4 performance increased by 50 compared to the previous quarter.

95%, in terms of combined products, herbicide revenue growth rate only once a year.

01%; Pesticide revenue growth rate exceeded 38.

91%, it is judged that Q4’s performance is gradually expanding mainly due to the substantial decrease in sales of herbicides, which is actually affected by trade frictions. The sales of dicamba in Q4 was sluggish.

Based on current expectations, Sino-US relations have eased, and the sales of dicamba in Q1 of 19 are expected to ease.

The pyrethroid industry maintains a high boom, and the company as a leader will benefit: benefiting from the strict environmental protection regulations and the suspension of some enterprises, the price of pyrethroid has been increasing since 2017, and the industry’s prosperity has continued to rise.

Permethrin mainly includes two major categories of agricultural pyrethroid and hygienic permethrin. Demand is also mainly domestic, and domestic demand is guaranteed in the future.

In addition, since the third quarter of 2018, we have insisted that even if the environmental protection policy can be improved, its strength will be limited. The government work report some time ago confirms this, and the explosion time in Yancheng may increase the environmental protection high-voltage situation. It is 无锡桑拿网 expected thatThe industry prosperity will continue, and the company as a core leader will obviously benefit.

Acquisition of Sinochem International Agrochemical assets, sales and R & D two-pronged approach: On August 2, 18, the company restructured the agreement with Sinochem International, intending to acquire 100% equity of Sinochem Crops held by Sinochem International and 100% equity of Agricultural Research Corporation.

Sinochem Crops was established in January 2011. It is mainly engaged in the import and export of chemical raw materials, products and technologies, and has a wealth of downstream sales channels.

Agribusiness is an influential R & D platform in developing countries.

The acquisition of the two companies will broaden the company’s internal and sales channels, increase the company’s R & D strength, and improve the company’s integrated industrial chain.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: Considering that the fourth quarter of 2018’s performance did not meet expectations, the company’s profit forecast was lowered, and the company’s net profit for the years 19-21 is expected to be 10.

05, 11.

73, 13.

1.3 billion, corresponding to PE of 18.

08, 15.

49, 13.84. Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk factors: The environmental protection intensity is greatly reduced, and the price of pyrethroid products is greatly reduced.

Shanying Paper (600567) Annual Report Comments: 2018 Performance Continues High Growth Issues Repurchase Plan Maintains Buy Rating

Shanying Paper (600567) Annual Report Comments: 2018 Performance 北京夜网 Continues High Growth Issues Repurchase Plan Maintains Buy Rating

Revenue in 2018 increased by 39 in ten years.

5%, the net profit attributable to the mother increased by 59% in ten years. The company released the 2018 annual report, and achieved revenue of 243 in 2018.

6 billion, an increase of 39 previously.

In terms of products, the papermaking business achieved revenues of 18.6 billion yuan, an increase of 47 in the future.

8%; packaging business achieved revenue 43.

700 million, an increase of 19 years.

7%.

In 2018, the company’s merger revenue continued to maintain rapid growth through mergers and acquisitions with Fujian Liansheng and packaging companies.

In 2018, the net profit attributable to mothers was 3.2 billion, an increase of 59%, which is equivalent to zero EPS.

7 yuan.

In 2018, the company’s operating net cash flow was 32.

4.8 billion, a new high since listing.

Regardless of M & A factors in 2019, the increase in production capacity of Shanying Paper mainly comes from the 127 production capacity of the Hubei base and the wood pulp production capacity of Phoenix Paper acquired in 2018.

Gross profit margin increased slightly in 2018, and the expense ratio increased by 1.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 23.

1%, an increase of 0 from 2018.

1 single; by product, gross margin of papermaking business increased by 0.

3 up to 26.

6%; the gross profit margin of the packaging business decreased by 2 times to 19.

7%.

Judging from the price trends of domestic box corrugated paper, national waste and US waste, the profitability of box corrugated paper in the second half of 2018 significantly deviated from the same period in 2017, but the company’s gross profit margin in the second half of 2018 changed only.

In nine aspects, we believe that the profitability of Shanying can remain stable against the background of the industry’s economic subdivision. It should be that after Fujian Liansheng was acquired in 2018, after the finer management of Shanying Paper, its profitability was obtained.Significantly improved, lowered, Shanying’s ability to control upstream resources has increased, which can result in more cheap waste paper resources worldwide.

The industrial value of leading enterprises will be reflected more vividly in 2018.

According to the data published by the Domestic Paper Association, papermakers in the domestic boxboard corrugated paper industry with a cumulative volume of less than 40 volumes still occupy a 30% share of the industry. If the amount of 100 calories is used as the dividing line, paper companies below this standardA total of 45% of the decentralized industry in total, while the top three domestic leaders Nine Dragons, Lee & Man and Shanying Paper have a combined market share of between 50% and 60%, and Shanying Paper has a domestic market share of only 9%.

Therefore, in the future, through the advantages and disadvantages of the industry and the integration of mergers and acquisitions, assuming that the domestic boxboard corrugated paper industry has zero growth, leading companies can still double their room to grow.

From a global perspective, Nine Dragons, Lee & Man, and Shanying have all started strategies. The main line of the conversion strategy is divided into two: one is the acquisition of wood pulp and waste paper resources; the other is the acquisition of domestic production without technical capabilitiesOf high-end papermaking capacity, acquired Nordic Paper.

Therefore, from both domestic and global perspectives, we believe that leading companies represented by Shanying Paper will still have huge growth space in the future.

Major shareholders increase their holdings + repurchase + it is estimated to be cheap. Maintaining the buy rating company releases its plan for repurchasing shares at the same time as the annual report is released, within 12 months, to no more than 5.

58 yuan / share price, repurchase 3.

7.5 billion-7.

At the same time, in June 2018, the company’s controlling shareholder issued an announcement to increase its holdings of 2 to 1 billion shares of the company. In December 2018, the controlling shareholder has gradually increased its holdings2.

05 trillion, the average price of holdings is 3.

21 yuan / share.

We expect the company’s net profit to be 33 in 2019.

500 million, the current market value of 18.5 billion, corresponding to a PE of 5 in 2019.

5 times, the company’s estimated level is at the bottom of history, and maintain a BUY rating.

Institutions: Short-term disturbances are difficult to change the favorable pattern of A shares

Institutions: Short-term disturbances are difficult to change the favorable pattern of A shares

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Original title: Short-term disturbances are difficult to change the A-share market. □ Our reporter, Xiuli Investment Agency and experts, said recently that due to new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemics and continued fluctuations in the surrounding markets during the Spring Festival A-share market break.Facing pressure, but this is only a short-term disturbance and will not change the long-term positive trend of A shares.

  Short-term factors disturb analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy will mainly manifest for a quarter, which is a short-term disturbance factor, and the impact on the stock market is temporary.

  Nomura Securities estimates that the impact of the outbreak may be short-term.

After the epidemic is under control, the economy may experience a V-shaped rebound through suppressed demand and the release of corresponding production capacity.

Citigroup pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy will be concentrated in the first quarter of this year.

Xu Gao, chief economist at BOCI Securities, believes that if the epidemic can be effectively controlled in February, the long-term macroeconomic impact of the epidemic will be limited.

  On the stock market, Southwest Securities analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the capital market is more short-term.

  ”During the period of 1 to 2 weeks, the epidemic factors caused some disturbance to the market operation through emotions; in a quarter or so, we need to pay attention to the impact of changes in economic data due to the epidemic on the market;Negligible.

“Peng Wensheng, chief economist at Everbright Securities, pointed out.

  The founder of Bridgewater Fund Rui Dalio pointed out that the market often takes care of epidemic factors from over-concern to over-concern, changing the number of newly diagnosed cases, and these effects will begin to weaken.

  At least, people in the short-term should not be overly worried about market participants who believe that A-shares are facing short-term and short-term pressure, which can refer to the trend of overseas stock markets during the Spring Festival, but they should not be overly worried.

  From January 24 to 31, the Hang Seng Index gradually decreased by 5.

At 72%, the Nikkei 225 index gradually decreased by 2.

48%, South Korea’s Comprehensive Sustainability Index has gradually fallen by nearly 5.

66%, FTSE China A50 futures fell more than 7%.

  One week before the Spring Festival, northbound funds changed from a net inflow to a net alternation.

From January 21 to January 23, Northbound funds had a net distortion for 3 consecutive trading days.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Times Securities, believes that in the short term, northbound funds are unlikely to turn into a continuous net inflow.

  In addition, Gui Haoming, chief market expert of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute, said that the interference caused by epidemic factors and the tertiary industry caused interference, among which listed companies such as movies, outdoor entertainment, and tourism are more obvious.

  In this regard, the regulatory authorities have successively introduced relevant policies to help stabilize the market and guide investors to invest rationally.

  On February 1, the interim, the CSRC and other five departments jointly issued a document to further strengthen financial support for epidemic prevention and control, including strengthening financial infrastructure service guarantees, conducting financial market-related businesses steadily, improving bond issuance and other services, and flexibly and properly adjusting corporate information.Various measures such as disclosure of regulatory matters, appropriate relaxation of the time limit for capital market-related businesses, and reduction or exemption of some expenses such as listing of companies in severely affected areas directly involve the capital market.

  The head of the relevant departments of the Securities and Futures Commission said in an interview with the China Securities Journal on February 2 that the relevant departments will remain highly vigilant about possible changes in the A-share market after the opening of the market, adhere to the bottom line 苏州夜网论坛 thinking, introduce and research hedging tools to ease the marketPanic.

  According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, the ministries and commissions have adequate policy responses to the epidemic situation.

The speed of monetary policy is currently focused on relieving the disintegration of micro-cracks with targeted credit. Recently, there is still the possibility of reducing interest rates and standards.

Fiscal policy is mainly focused on supplementing rapid support for epidemic control, precise tax and fee reductions, and helping to reduce the industry’s recuperation.

  ”Long cattle market does not change” In the medium and long term, the epidemic will not change the slow cattle market.

“Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said.

  ”The epidemic situation will usher in a turning point in the short term, and we look forward to the return of 杭州桑拿 A shares to growth in the second half of the year.

“Zhongyuan Securities analyst Yang Zhen (Jin Qilin analyst) Yu Hang pointed out that if the epidemic situation can really usher in an inflection point in the first quarter, we can start to focus on the growth sector performance again.

The current economic structural transformation, policy role, monetary and financial environment and other factors continue to be conducive to the performance of emerging industries and growth sectors.

  In addition, the long-term consumer sector will also usher in structural opportunities.

An Yaze (Jin Qilin analyst), chief analyst of food and beverage of CITIC Securities, said that in the short term, due to the epidemic, the food and beverage sector may have improved.

In the long run, the trend of consumption upgrade has not changed. The epidemic situation may accelerate the integration of the industry, and the concentration of leading enterprises may be further enhanced.

After the short-term sentiment is vented, continue to be optimistic about the leaders in various industries.

Baolong Technology (603197): Performance is in line with expectations and optimistic about the rebound in growth in 2019

Baolong Technology (603197): Performance is in line with expectations and optimistic about the rebound in growth in 2019

Revenue growth has been stable, and net expenses have increased in the short term due to increased expenses.

The company released its 2018 annual report and initially achieved operating income23.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

77%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

55 ppm, a decrease of 10 per year.

93%; gross profit margin 32.

92%, a decrease of 2 per year.

44 units; net interest rate 8.

79%, a decrease of 2 per year.

01 averages.

In 2018, the company’s revenue grew steadily, while the decrease in net profit was subject to additional tariffs imposed by the United States.

220,000 yuan, 890.

98 million), overseas market expansion (overseas market service fee increases 1493 annually).

910,000 yuan), management costs increased (labor expenditure increased by 4278).

850,000, including 940 of equity incentive expenses.

08 thousand yuan), factors such as rising raw material prices.

The traditional advantageous business maintained steady growth, and the growth rate of TPMS business improved.

(1) Exhaust system pipe fittings (tailpipes and hot end pipes) and valve nozzles are the company’s traditional advantageous businesses. Gradually increasing revenue continues to achieve steady growth: valve valves gradually realize sales revenue.

91 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

49%; exhaust system fittings achieved sales revenue8.

1.7 billion, an annual increase of 8.

08%.

(2) The TPMS business was affected by the increase in sales of some supporting models, and the revenue growth exceeded expectations: TPMS gradually realized sales revenue5.

48 ppm, a ten-year increase of 11.

53%.

The company’s TPMS supply vehicles are mainly self-owned brand SUVs. In 2018, due to the downward impact of the domestic auto market, sales of self-owned brand SUVs were disrupted, resulting in a decline in revenue growth of the block.

(3) Revenue from other businesses such as sensors and lightweight products maintained rapid growth: sales revenue from other businesses1.

650,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

47%.

Benefiting from the formal implementation of national mandatory installation regulations, the TPMS business is expected to return to rapid growth.

The compulsory installation regulations for domestic passenger car TPMS have been officially implemented from January 1, 2019, and the penetration rate of TPMS will accelerate from about 50% to 100% from 2019 to 2020.

The company ‘s TPMS investment capacity has been in place by the end of 2018, and the construction of Hefei Park is about to begin in 2019. After reaching the production capacity, the company’s total power generation of TPMS transmitters and controllers has expanded from about 10 million and 2 million to over 25 million and3.5 million, an increase of 237 over the existing capacity.

5%.

Baofu Electronics, a joint venture established between the company and Huo Fu Group, has already landed in the early stage. By integrating the resources of both parties, the new company is expected to become one of the global TPMS market leaders.

If we consider factors such as policy promotion, capacity release, and strong alliance with the Huofu Group, we expect the company’s TPMS business to return to rapid growth in 2019.

Automotive electronics and lightweight business will become the company’s medium- and long-term focus.

(1) In terms of automotive electronics, the company’s sensor business has been awarded by SAIC Passenger Cars, Shenlong, Chery and other customers for a number of projects. Benefiting from the implementation of the National Six emission standards, pressure sensors related to the National Six standards are expected to obtain more project pointsRevenue may maintain rapid growth; 360 ° surround view system has been designated by the Geely project and is expected to start mass production in 2019; millimeter wave radar and dynamic vision system will be used to support Yutong buses in the future.

(2) In 杭州桑拿网 terms of light weight, the company’s lightweight structural parts have been matched to some customer models such as Volvo, Cadillac, Geely, etc. At present, the volume of revenue is still small, but it is growing rapidly.The above-mentioned large-scale business has ample room for growth, and it is expected to take over TPMS in the future, which will become an important driving force for the company’s continued long-term performance growth.

Investment suggestion: As the industry gradually picks up, TPMS business returns to rapid growth, and new businesses such as automotive electronics and lightweight are gradually heavy. From 2019, the company is expected to enter the medium-high-speed growth track.

We forecast the company’s annual revenue from 2019 to 2021 to be 1.

26 yuan, 1.

66 yuan and 1.

76 yuan, return on net 天津夜网 assets were 17 respectively.

6%, 20.

2% and 18.

9%.

Maintain “Buy-A” investment rating.

Risks: Lower-than-expected production and sales of automotive by downstream customers; slower-than-expected arrival of new automotive electronics products; substantial increase in raw material prices; exchange rate changes.