Jiantou Energy (000600): Volume and price rise, the company’s performance exceeded expectations by 156%, continue to be optimistic about the company’s profit repair

Event: On March 16, the company released its 2018 annual report, which achieved operating income of 139 in 2018.

7.6 billion, an annual increase of 32.

24%, achieving net profit attributable to the parent company4.

32 ppm, an increase of 156 in ten years.

33%, the company’s ROE reached 3.

99%, an increase of 2 from last year.

45 units.

Opinion: The increase in volume and price caused the company’s revenue to increase by 32 in 2018.

The 24% increase in power generation and electricity prices at the same time is the company’s high income growth in 2018 of 32.

24% of prime.

In terms of power generation, the company completed 411 in 2018.

4.7 billion kilowatt-hours, completed 383 on-grid electricity.

7.1 billion kWh, an increase of 15 each year.

51% and 15.

74%; the average utilization hours of the company’s holding generating units is 5,234 hours, which is increased by at least 378 hours each year.

In terms of electricity prices, the company’s on-grid electricity price in 2018 was estimated to be 368.

08 yuan / MWh, an increase of 34 over 17 years ago.

23 yuan / MWh.

Into the standard coal hit a record high, the gross profit margin of the power generation business increased slightly.

The average coal price of 97 averages reached a new high. In 2018, the average price of 5500K thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port reached 649 yuan / ton, an increase of 14 yuan / ton from the previous year.

As for the company, in 2018, the unit price of the standard coal into the furnace reached 638 yuan / ton, an increase of 13 yuan / ton from the previous year, and an annual increase of 2.

08%.

Due to the increase in power generation and the increase in the cost of coal prices, the cost of the company’s power generation business increased by 31 compared with the previous year.

11%, lower than the revenue growth rate of power generation business 32.

62%, the company’s power generation business gross margin reached 15.

33%, a slight increase of 0.

97 units.

Interest expenses increase by 19 per year.

3%, the company’s share of power plant revenue growth rate in 2018 the company realized interest expenses5.

7.5 billion, an increase of 0 from last year.

9.3 billion, an increase of 19 years.

3%, due to the increase in the company’s interest-bearing debt scale and the rise in comprehensive financing costs.

As of December 31, 2018, the company had interest rate denying the scale reached 132.

4.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5 from last year.

2.8 billion; after calculation, the company’s comprehensive financing cost reached 4 in 2018.

34%, an increase of 0 from the previous year.

55 units.

In terms of investment income, the company realized investment income in 20181.26 trillion, an increase of 0 from last year.

1.4 billion US dollars, of which the return on investment in associates and joint ventures is zero.

US $ 6.3 billion, a record low in recent years. The main reason is that the power plants in which the company has shares continue to rank in 2018.

We have calculated the operating results of 6 companies including Handan Peak, Hengfeng, Cangdong, Wangtan, Longshan, and Guodian Chengde. The six participating power plants achieved profit in 20181.

550,000 yuan, a decrease of 2 from last year.

8.4 billion.

In the future, the cost of coal prices will gradually decline, and the company’s equity level in power plants is expected to increase significantly.

Profit forecast and forecast: The company’s 2018 performance exceeded expectations. This time we raised the company’s profit forecast, predicting that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother for 2019-2021 will be 9.

50, 14.

02 and 15.

380,000 yuan, an increase of 120% in ten years, 47.

5% and 9.

7%, EPS is 0.

53, 0.

78 and 0.

86 yuan, corresponding to PE is 12.

95, 8.

78 and 8.

00 times, PB is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.

03, 0.

93 and 0.

83.

The coal price hub will go down, the power supply and demand in the region where the company is located will be tight, the hours of use will 苏州夜网论坛 remain high and the market electricity discount will be small.Strong, the current company PB1.

14 times away from the historical estimate of Hub 1.

5 times continuous shrinkage difference, maintaining a highly recommended grade.

Risk reminder: the risk of a substantial increase in electricity consumption, the risk of a significant increase in coal prices