Shanying Paper (600567) Annual Report Comments: 2018 Performance 北京夜网 Continues High Growth Issues Repurchase Plan Maintains Buy Rating

Revenue in 2018 increased by 39 in ten years.

5%, the net profit attributable to the mother increased by 59% in ten years. The company released the 2018 annual report, and achieved revenue of 243 in 2018.

6 billion, an increase of 39 previously.

In terms of products, the papermaking business achieved revenues of 18.6 billion yuan, an increase of 47 in the future.

8%; packaging business achieved revenue 43.

700 million, an increase of 19 years.

7%.

In 2018, the company’s merger revenue continued to maintain rapid growth through mergers and acquisitions with Fujian Liansheng and packaging companies.

In 2018, the net profit attributable to mothers was 3.2 billion, an increase of 59%, which is equivalent to zero EPS.

7 yuan.

In 2018, the company’s operating net cash flow was 32.

4.8 billion, a new high since listing.

Regardless of M & A factors in 2019, the increase in production capacity of Shanying Paper mainly comes from the 127 production capacity of the Hubei base and the wood pulp production capacity of Phoenix Paper acquired in 2018.

Gross profit margin increased slightly in 2018, and the expense ratio increased by 1.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 23.

1%, an increase of 0 from 2018.

1 single; by product, gross margin of papermaking business increased by 0.

3 up to 26.

6%; the gross profit margin of the packaging business decreased by 2 times to 19.

7%.

Judging from the price trends of domestic box corrugated paper, national waste and US waste, the profitability of box corrugated paper in the second half of 2018 significantly deviated from the same period in 2017, but the company’s gross profit margin in the second half of 2018 changed only.

In nine aspects, we believe that the profitability of Shanying can remain stable against the background of the industry’s economic subdivision. It should be that after Fujian Liansheng was acquired in 2018, after the finer management of Shanying Paper, its profitability was obtained.Significantly improved, lowered, Shanying’s ability to control upstream resources has increased, which can result in more cheap waste paper resources worldwide.

The industrial value of leading enterprises will be reflected more vividly in 2018.

According to the data published by the Domestic Paper Association, papermakers in the domestic boxboard corrugated paper industry with a cumulative volume of less than 40 volumes still occupy a 30% share of the industry. If the amount of 100 calories is used as the dividing line, paper companies below this standardA total of 45% of the decentralized industry in total, while the top three domestic leaders Nine Dragons, Lee & Man and Shanying Paper have a combined market share of between 50% and 60%, and Shanying Paper has a domestic market share of only 9%.

Therefore, in the future, through the advantages and disadvantages of the industry and the integration of mergers and acquisitions, assuming that the domestic boxboard corrugated paper industry has zero growth, leading companies can still double their room to grow.

From a global perspective, Nine Dragons, Lee & Man, and Shanying have all started strategies. The main line of the conversion strategy is divided into two: one is the acquisition of wood pulp and waste paper resources; the other is the acquisition of domestic production without technical capabilitiesOf high-end papermaking capacity, acquired Nordic Paper.

Therefore, from both domestic and global perspectives, we believe that leading companies represented by Shanying Paper will still have huge growth space in the future.

Major shareholders increase their holdings + repurchase + it is estimated to be cheap. Maintaining the buy rating company releases its plan for repurchasing shares at the same time as the annual report is released, within 12 months, to no more than 5.

58 yuan / share price, repurchase 3.

7.5 billion-7.

At the same time, in June 2018, the company’s controlling shareholder issued an announcement to increase its holdings of 2 to 1 billion shares of the company. In December 2018, the controlling shareholder has gradually increased its holdings2.

05 trillion, the average price of holdings is 3.

21 yuan / share.

We expect the company’s net profit to be 33 in 2019.

500 million, the current market value of 18.5 billion, corresponding to a PE of 5 in 2019.

5 times, the company’s estimated level is at the bottom of history, and maintain a BUY rating.