Institutions: Short-term disturbances are difficult to change the favorable pattern of A shares
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Original title: Short-term disturbances are difficult to change the A-share market. □ Our reporter, Xiuli Investment Agency and experts, said recently that due to new coronavirus-infected pneumonia epidemics and continued fluctuations in the surrounding markets during the Spring Festival A-share market break.Facing pressure, but this is only a short-term disturbance and will not change the long-term positive trend of A shares.
Short-term factors disturb analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy will mainly manifest for a quarter, which is a short-term disturbance factor, and the impact on the stock market is temporary.
Nomura Securities estimates that the impact of the outbreak may be short-term.
After the epidemic is under control, the economy may experience a V-shaped rebound through suppressed demand and the release of corresponding production capacity.
Citigroup pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy will be concentrated in the first quarter of this year.
Xu Gao, chief economist at BOCI Securities, believes that if the epidemic can be effectively controlled in February, the long-term macroeconomic impact of the epidemic will be limited.
On the stock market, Southwest Securities analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the capital market is more short-term.
”During the period of 1 to 2 weeks, the epidemic factors caused some disturbance to the market operation through emotions; in a quarter or so, we need to pay attention to the impact of changes in economic data due to the epidemic on the market;Negligible.
“Peng Wensheng, chief economist at Everbright Securities, pointed out.
The founder of Bridgewater Fund Rui Dalio pointed out that the market often takes care of epidemic factors from over-concern to over-concern, changing the number of newly diagnosed cases, and these effects will begin to weaken.
At least, people in the short-term should not be overly worried about market participants who believe that A-shares are facing short-term and short-term pressure, which can refer to the trend of overseas stock markets during the Spring Festival, but they should not be overly worried.
From January 24 to 31, the Hang Seng Index gradually decreased by 5.
At 72%, the Nikkei 225 index gradually decreased by 2.
48%, South Korea’s Comprehensive Sustainability Index has gradually fallen by nearly 5.
66%, FTSE China A50 futures fell more than 7%.
One week before the Spring Festival, northbound funds changed from a net inflow to a net alternation.
From January 21 to January 23, Northbound funds had a net distortion for 3 consecutive trading days.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Times Securities, believes that in the short term, northbound funds are unlikely to turn into a continuous net inflow.
In addition, Gui Haoming, chief market expert of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute, said that the interference caused by epidemic factors and the tertiary industry caused interference, among which listed companies such as movies, outdoor entertainment, and tourism are more obvious.
In this regard, the regulatory authorities have successively introduced relevant policies to help stabilize the market and guide investors to invest rationally.
On February 1, the interim, the CSRC and other five departments jointly issued a document to further strengthen financial support for epidemic prevention and control, including strengthening financial infrastructure service guarantees, conducting financial market-related businesses steadily, improving bond issuance and other services, and flexibly and properly adjusting corporate information.Various measures such as disclosure of regulatory matters, appropriate relaxation of the time limit for capital market-related businesses, and reduction or exemption of some expenses such as listing of companies in severely affected areas directly involve the capital market.
The head of the relevant departments of the Securities and Futures Commission said in an interview with the China Securities Journal on February 2 that the relevant departments will remain highly vigilant about possible changes in the A-share market after the opening of the market, adhere to the bottom line 苏州夜网论坛 thinking, introduce and research hedging tools to ease the marketPanic.
According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, the ministries and commissions have adequate policy responses to the epidemic situation.
The speed of monetary policy is currently focused on relieving the disintegration of micro-cracks with targeted credit. Recently, there is still the possibility of reducing interest rates and standards.
Fiscal policy is mainly focused on supplementing rapid support for epidemic control, precise tax and fee reductions, and helping to reduce the industry’s recuperation.
”Long cattle market does not change” In the medium and long term, the epidemic will not change the slow cattle market.
“Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said.
”The epidemic situation will usher in a turning point in the short term, and we look forward to the return of 杭州桑拿 A shares to growth in the second half of the year.
“Zhongyuan Securities analyst Yang Zhen (Jin Qilin analyst) Yu Hang pointed out that if the epidemic situation can really usher in an inflection point in the first quarter, we can start to focus on the growth sector performance again.
The current economic structural transformation, policy role, monetary and financial environment and other factors continue to be conducive to the performance of emerging industries and growth sectors.
In addition, the long-term consumer sector will also usher in structural opportunities.
An Yaze (Jin Qilin analyst), chief analyst of food and beverage of CITIC Securities, said that in the short term, due to the epidemic, the food and beverage sector may have improved.
In the long run, the trend of consumption upgrade has not changed. The epidemic situation may accelerate the integration of the industry, and the concentration of leading enterprises may be further enhanced.
After the short-term sentiment is vented, continue to be optimistic about the leaders in various industries.